The Celtics eye a lineup of potential opponents, softened by Jimmy Butler's injury - a twist of fate that could swing the gates wide open for the Chicago Bulls to stride through.
The Celtics eye a lineup of potential opponents, softened by Jimmy Butler's injury - a twist of fate that could swing the gates wide open for the Chicago Bulls to stride through.
You're listening to Offering in-depth analysis on all things Boston Celtics with your hosts, jim and Mike Quigley. Good morning, or good afternoon whenever you're listening to this for another episode of Hard Foul with your host, jim Quigley and Mike Quigley. A good night of well, two good nights of basketball the last two nights in particular, the Lakers game and the 76ers game. As both teams move on to the playoffs, the 76ers will be taking on the New York Knicks and the LA Lakers will be traveling to Denver and the Celtics wait, they play on Sunday. They're going to play the winners of the Miami Heat in Chicago Bulls, which at first you would think Miami's got this easily. But with the Jimmy Butler injury, I think things are wide open right now and the Bulls look good offensively last night. So things are interesting. The games have been great. I was my take, jim, just watching Joel Embiid. He had a good fourth quarter, but he's certainly not the same player. But a tough, gritty win by Philadelphia last night. And who would have thought that Chick-fil-A would have saved this season?
Mike Quigley:Because, once those free throws were missed, that crowd was going nuts.
Jim Quigley:Yeah, no, that is funny. And then I think Batum came down and hit a three. Yeah, you know, maybe another three after that. Yeah, no, I mean Embiid, he struggled most of that game, you're correct, but down the stretch he was huge, you know, he kind of got they were down and he hit that three and then he got a NAMM one.
Mike Quigley:Oh, and the assist to Kelly Oubre was huge.
Jim Quigley:And it just kind of impacted the game in a way where Miami didn't have an answer and clearly Jimmy Butler was hobbled and that made a difference too and it felt like that whole game it was going to be one of those Miami Heat just like very slow, grind you to death with their zone defense, caused you to have a lot of turnovers. So they can you know those live ball killer turnovers so they can get easier hoops because they know if they have to play their offense in the half court they're probably in trouble. And you know, even though they weren't scoring, they were doing enough of that in the first half to build a lead out of you know what was it at? 1.14 points or so. But I I the problem with miami right now and how they're built and especially with the you know subtractions they have in the offseason. They they can't capitalize on um team's mistakes like you other really good teams in this league. They held Philadelphia to 40-something points. You know that lead really should have stretched out even larger. They had plenty of opportunities to stretch out even larger. In fact I thought Tyler Harrell shot them out of. I know he got gone late, but he shot them out of like of opportunities in the first half to really extend that lead and kept Philly in striking distance, and now they're on a tough spot. This is why the play-in you don't want to be in it. Butler goes down and is hobbled and they're in a one-game playoff with Chicago to advance.
Jim Quigley:I will say this, though We've seen it before with Butler, where it looks like he's going to be unable to go or he's really injured and the next thing you know he's playing through it and he's fine, but it didn't look great. And it comes down to Chicago-Miami and it's looking pretty good for the Celtics right now. There's no other way to put it. It's looking pretty good. I know Chicago looked good on offense last night and they had a pretty good second half, but they're mostly an ordinary team. There is nothing on that team that you say is exceptional or that you really really worry about. I know DeRozan's had big nights against the Celtics. I know DeRozan's had big nights against the Celtics. I know Colby White's playing better. I know Vucevic is a talented player, but they really they don't have anything that you say.
Jim Quigley:Oh, that's a great three-pointing team. That's a great rebounding team. That's a great passing team. That's a great defensive team. They're okay at a lot of things, maybe a little bit better than okay at others, and that's why I thought you saw the celtics pretty much toyed with them every time they played them this season. Um, you know. So it's either going to be the celtics of heat and then you know the celtics have passed out. It's even the magic of cabs. You know you, really you couldn't ask for a better playoff route for the celtics than they have right now, I guess in in terms terms of how this thing is shaping up.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, I mean, I feel like the Celtics could really just dominate these first couple rounds and see what's left when the Eastern Conference Finals comes, because Milwaukee's already down, giannis, it could be for most of that series.
Jim Quigley:Yeah.
Mike Quigley:You gotta With him out. Is Philadelphia the favorite? I mean Philadelphia? Is Indiana the favorite? I think that's a real question now where they've already played Milwaukee really good this year, and then the Knicks.
Jim Quigley:I think Indiana has to win at least one or two of these first two games in Milwaukee, with Giannis out. If they don't, they're screwed. That's kind of the way I look at it.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, I think Milwaukee's going to have a hard time winning any games against Indiana without Giannis.
Jim Quigley:They could, I really do. They struggled with Giannis against Indiana this season.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, and then this next Philadelphia series. Oh, Embiid's got a few more days off here. I give Philadelphia a real shot to win that series. If Embiid can play, if he looks like he looked last night in that first half of those first three quarters, then I don't think Philadelphia's going anywhere. But you never know, Like that could be a really good series too.
Jim Quigley:Yeah, so what miami was unable to do last night. I think this is where philadelphia is going to have issues in the playoffs, and maybe that's because of butler's knee, but they weren't really able to take advantage of iris maxi in any way on the defensive end. Um, if you remember during the course of the season, anytime the celtics played the Sixers they would find Maxie and they would just go directly at him and there really wasn't much of an answer. And I know he was giving great effort. He's still not a great defensive player. The Knicks are capable of doing that with Brunson, just really attacking him and getting shots whenever they want, and Brunson can do that just about against anyone. But he's really going to be able to do it against Maxey, which makes you think Philly's going to have to try to double play some zone to get out of that.
Jim Quigley:On the other end, you know you would say typically, if Embiid's right, New York doesn't have an answer for him. You know, neither are the big guys. Even when Mitchell is healthy is really a deterrent to Embiid, but he isn't right. So I actually, before last night, really felt positive that the Knicks would get past. I mean that the Sixers would get past the Knicks Watching Embiid hobble last night. I don't know if he's going to be able to stand up in a seven-game series anymore, and I think it could be a long series, but I just don't see him being able to get through it to the end, whether it's being effective or being able to play. He looked like he was really laboring for the majority of that game yeah, I mean to answer your like question about Tyrese Maxey.
Mike Quigley:I think I would just put him on Josh Hart.
Jim Quigley:But yeah, but you can get him out of that. You just screen it out of it. You know you have Hop become the screener and either they're going to switch it or you know Brunson's going to be able to get, you know, the space he needs off that screen. So, like there's, you can try that. But that's why the playoffs are so difficult. Offense is just fine ways to target your guys.
Mike Quigley:Yeah. I mean I look at this road for the Celtics, it's really possible that they could. If Giannis isn't the same and Milwaukee doesn't get out of the first round, the Celtics may not have a real threat until the NBA finals yeah, I mean, injuries has really impacted that right.
Jim Quigley:Um, I think Milwaukee's gonna find a way. Uh, I do. I think we'll see Giannis this series. I don't know why. I think that it's just a guess. I think you'll see him this series. I think they will find a way past the Pacers and then, if they do, they should be the heavy favorite, I think, at this point against either the Sixers or the Knicks. You know, I think it could be a grinded-out series for them, but they should be the favorites to get by. But you're right. But you're right.
Jim Quigley:It's a distinct possibility that this could be a path which is the complete opposite from previous years. If you looked at two years ago, it was the team that everyone feared Brooklyn in the first round, and then they had Milwaukee in the conference semis and then Miami in the finals. And then last year they had the sixes, who took them to seven, and miami, obviously with it was the upset team. What was the best team in the playoffs? So the routes have been difficult for them. Um, they still underperformed even though they've been difficult, but this year it could be completely different and I don't know what's better. The difficult route really hasn't done them any favors. So maybe this is the best way to get to the finals and you come out clean and you're ready to go.
Mike Quigley:I I don't know you know I would, I would. I think the easy route is the way you always want it, um, but I will say this if jimmy butler comes back and plays and miami wins, it's not going to be a cakewalk. No matter how that team is built, the celtics still struggle against that zone. They struggled against it this year and you know I I'm concerned I saw that concern level about what kind of celtic team shows up in that series when things get tough yeah I, I mean they'll put their zone.
Jim Quigley:Um, did the celtic struggle against his own? They breed him pretty handily three times and I know early in the season they were able to get them out of the zone pretty quickly and then they blew them out in Miami Then the last game. I know it was a little bit back and forth but the Celtics, I think, kind of put them away in that fourth quarter, if I remember correctly. The Celtics shouldn't struggle against zones. If I remember correctly, the Celtics shouldn't struggle against zones. I think the Embiid being hobbled really created problems for the Sixers. They just kind of he wasn't able to react quick enough like he typically would. So I thought that was maybe part of the reason they struggled so much early on against the zone. But with Przingis and Tatum, the way you should be able to space the floor, you should be okay against zones, even in Miami's zone. In the past Miami has gone zone when Tatum's gone off the floor. Not to say that's 100% true, I mean they have done it with Tatum on the floor. But in the playoffs that's really where they've had success and they've caused a ton of turnovers from Brown. Hopefully Missoula stag stagger us in a way where neither Tatum or Zingas are ever both off the floor when you're playing a really quality team in the playoffs, especially if they want to go zone against you because those guys are your zone busters, right. So I don't know.
Jim Quigley:I think Miami would be tough with Butler. I can't see him being all that tough without him. You just look at what can they do offensively without Butler and especially with Rosier and Duncan Robinson kind of banged up too Like you put that team on the floor last night and maybe they go crazy hot from three I guess. But how do they get open? So on the other end, you're going to have to play Tyler Harrow a ton of minutes and he's such a detriment defensively, especially against the Celtics. I just think that would be a struggle. Butler changes it off. He changes the equation completely. I just think that would be a struggle. Butler changes it all. He changes the equation completely. He makes it a much tougher matchup. He gives Miami a puncher's shot. Absolutely Without him. I just don't know how they make it difficult.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, so I mean the playoffs are right around the corner. We got the western conference eight nine game tonight. Um, it looks like sacramento is probably the favorite there. Now that, unfortunately, zion's hurt. That was such a tough injury in that la game yeah um, but then you got chicago and miami. Tomorrow night in miami, um. What are your predictions, jim? What do you think is going to happen? Who do you think the Celtics are playing in the first round?
Jim Quigley:If Butler is able to go, I think Miami squeaks by. If he's not, I think it's going to be Chicago. I just don't think Miami has enough offensively to get through 48 minutes without Butler, really almost against any team that's left. Enough offensively to get through 48 minutes without Butler, really almost against any team that's left. And if that's the case, I think Boston might have the worst team in the playoffs coming into all of this as their opponent. You know it's a coin flip between them and the Hawks Bulls got home court last night. They won, but I think they'd probably get the worst team in the entire playoffs if chicago gets through um, and on the other side I think at this point you got to say kings, um, especially with zion out, uh, and ingram not himself yet back from injury. So you, I think I mean I don't know what you're going with, but that's what I see anyways.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, and the Pelicans, I mean even being at home. It doesn't even feel like a home court advantage.
Jim Quigley:No, it's a joke. It's like Miami yeah.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, I definitely think the Kings are moving on. I guess you give the Pelicans a shot, because I don't think the Kings played great defense against Golden State. I just thought Golden State was awful. The Kings aren't a good defensive team. They don't defend the three-point line at all, but the Pelicans also don't even hit threes. So, yeah, you've got to favor the Kings, especially with the way they shoot the ball. Yeah, and I would think if Butler's playing, miami's definitely not losing. Yeah, and I would think if Butler's playing, miami's definitely not losing. But if he, if he's not playing, um, I give the, I give the Bulls a real shot. That game, uh, the Bulls, I think, are the better team. They're more talented. Uh, with Butler out, uh, but obviously coaching wise Spolster will have something put together right. I thought that Miami team was so ready to go last night and had such a good game plan and just talent went out in the second half. They are really just such a well-coached team.
Jim Quigley:Yeah, but it only takes you so far. Even as great as Spolster is, if you don't have people that can put the ball in the hoop, then it limits you. They drew up a great game plan to deal with and beat in the, the sixes offense and you know, they, they counted on the sixes role players missing shots, which they did. Um, they made sure to know where um maxi was at all times, uh, and they knew, and beat was hobbled, but but they just weren't able to take advantage of it enough. They had a chance in that first half to completely kind of snuff them out, for lack of a better term, and they just didn't have the offensive firepower to do it. I mean, they went one stretch in that second quarter where they hit three threes in a row and it felt like it was happening. And then Philadelphia made a couple hoops right before the half and Miami wasn't able to make another one. And the next thing, you know, instead of being 14, it's 12 at halftime, or 10 or whatever it was, instead of being 17, it's 12 or 10. So they just it feels like they just don't have enough. They don't have enough.
Jim Quigley:You know, duncan Robinson would really help, rosier would really help, but they weren't available. I don't know if they're going to be available tomorrow and certainly Butler, walking out of the gym, doesn't look like a guy that's going to be ready to go. But I also feel like he sometimes, you know, throws some flair on these injuries. Sometimes that makes it look and feel worse than it is. But we'll see, we'll see. How do you? What are you looking at for the rest of the playoffs, mike? Um, you know you can go round by round if you want, or if you want to, you know. Just say who you think's getting to the finals. How do you want to do this?
Mike Quigley:yeah, well, I will one more thing about the miami bulls game. I could see bam having a really big game. Um, I think in bead size impacted him last night, but even with which of its size I I could see bam just going at him yeah, no force beat in brucevich at all yeah yeah, that might keep my miami in it, even without jimmy butler, as.
Jim Quigley:I can see Miami winning this without Butler. I think Chicago has the edge, but I could absolutely see Miami winning one game without Jimmy Butler against the Chicago Bulls, who just seem to puke all over themselves whenever they get any opportunity.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, that's a factor too. And also, tyler Hero did pick up a rhythm in that fourth quarter last night. That's a guy who is a rhythm player and if that carries over he could be a problem for the Bulls. Um, he's still a. He's still a very good offensive player.
Mike Quigley:Uh, as far as the playoffs go, I mean, I think the Eastern Conference is the Celtics. I, I just I can't see anybody in the Eastern Conference beating them and honestly, jimmy, at this point I can't see anybody in the Eastern Conference beating them. And honestly, jimmy, at this point I can't see anybody in the Eastern Conference even threatening them. That's where I'm at. The Celtics can get in their own way, as we've seen this year, we've seen in the past, and that's a huge possibility. Like I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Celtics swept Miami, I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Miami Heat took them to seven. So I'm wait, it's a wait and see, but this team's so damn talented that they should run through the east. Uh, with the west I feel like it's you want to go round by round? Um, I do think Denver's just a lot better than the Lakers yeah, I thought the Lakers, I thought the Lakers big.
Jim Quigley:It's a bad matchup for the Lakers Big time.
Mike Quigley:They are. It's a bad matchup and I do think maybe this time around the Lakers get a game or two, so let's say that goes five or six. I do think Sneaky. I think the Kings could make a series against the Thunder, but I don't give them a shot. But I do think that could be a series that gets extended too Well, the Bron offense is going to be able to cook against the Thunder.
Jim Quigley:They just don't have any deterrence for him at all. I wonder if they try some with Jalen Williams on him. But he should be able to cook. They just don't have any real defensive size. And I know Holmgren's been good at the rim. He's not great defensively against guys like him and um, just as an individual defender he's not great right now. He's just not strong enough to withstand that. He's not really a center um, he shouldn't be anyways. So I I think, yeah, absolutely, Sacramento has a punchy shot. I think Oklahoma City it's the best matchup they could have hoped for and I think they're going to get through this series. But yeah, I think you know causes some problems with the Thunder for sure.
Mike Quigley:Yeah. One thing about Sabonis, though, is that he's not a good jump shooter if you play off of him, but when you play off of him he's such a good passer. That's where the threat is.
Jim Quigley:And he's such a good passer.
Mike Quigley:That's where the threat is and his rebounding-wise he should be able to clean up. And that's why, against Sacramento, I'd almost play him and cover him tight to take away the three-point line and tell Sabonis go ahead and get yours, because I feel like Sacramento's their best selves when they're killing you from three. If I'm OKC, that's what my strategy is going into. That series is taking away the three-point line. I think the most intriguing series, as typically in the NBA, are the four-fives. I do think Dallas is going to beat LA. I think Dallas has been playing great. They got some good bigs. They have two elite ISO players. I think the Clippers have been a bit of a mess and I'm giving Dallas the edge there. And then out east it's hard to predict the Cavs should win the series, but I think Orlando's defense is going to play a factor and I'm interested to see what happens with that first round.
Jim Quigley:Yeah, so the Dallas series is really interesting. I give Dallas the edge too just because I think Luke has been great in the playoffs. His style is, you know, kind of perfect in most cases. I will say this about the Clippers If they're locked in, they cover the ISOs as well as anybody in the league. You know they have multiple defenders that can deal with, you know, switches and being able to live with tough shots from great players. They have guys capable of defending. It's a matter of whether they're all connected and ready to go, but you know they can handle it and they can take the punches better than most teams um against like a dallas style in the playoffs. So if they try to just play kairi and luca in isolation and don't really move the ball, um, if the clippers are focused, that could play right into what they want to do.
Mike Quigley:Yeah let me, but let me ask you this about the Clippers If this is a seven-game series, within those seven games, how many of them do they even have? Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, for both together Are they going to play?
Jim Quigley:Leonard's played a ton of the season this year, hasn't he? I thought this was as many games played as he's had in a long time, yeah let's see it.
Mike Quigley:Let's see if they both play.
Jim Quigley:Yeah.
Mike Quigley:Yeah.
Jim Quigley:Well, that's an issue too. Yeah, they need to be locked in and ready to go, but I give a slight edge to the Mavericks, but I don't dismiss the Clippers in this at all. And as for your point of there's no real resistance in the East, I think that all depends on Milwaukee, right, if Giannis is able to get healthy and as the playoffs go longer he gets healthier and stronger, and you've got to remember, in this first round it's spaced out, so there's going to be opportunity to rest before he needs to get on the floor. They will definitely be a challenge If they're waiting for the Celtics and they get through it all and I know they have a history of coming up short outside of their championship. Yet they will be a challenge, not just because of Giannis but because of Dane.
Jim Quigley:I think he does cause problems for the Celtics. I think he's a problems for the Celtics. I think you know he's a quick, um, lethal, uh God, and I think he's probably the most outside of Brunson, the most dangerous God in the East that's left right now. And I know Maxie and Halliburton have had great years, but Dane's experience and ability would, um, would scare me more than them at this point. So I don't think it's cakewalk yet. It definitely has the potential to be.
Mike Quigley:It all depends on Milwaukee. I'm interested to see how locked in Dame actually is. You're already hearing rumors that he wants out Maybe. Yeah, I'm interested to see if that team's going to implode in this first round.
Jim Quigley:That would be bad. That would be bad. That would be bad for them going forward.
Mike Quigley:That's something to keep an eye on. Yeah, I think the most intriguing first-round matchups I also think that's a first-round matchup that you're going to throw in there is very intriguing. That's a matchup that could go seven games. That Milwaukee-Indiana series Absolutely.
Jim Quigley:Yeah. So that could be fun too, I guess from my predictions, mike, and then I'll. You know we'll close this up, if with the odds or whatever. But I think I'll say Western Conference Finals. I have Denver going against um Dallas and Denver, you know, making quick work of them to get to the finals. And I have the Celtics. I think it's a box. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Knicks, you know, depending on Giannis' health, but the Celtics get into the finals. And then we have the Celtics Nuggets NBA finals and my heart really, really wants the Celtics. My head is telling me otherwise, to make a pick there. But that's kind of where I land right now.
Mike Quigley:I got the Celtics playing the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals. Wow, yeah, making quick work of them. I think the Celtics get to the NBA Finals playing less than 17 games. Quick working on. I think the Celtics get to the NBA Finals with playing less than 17 games.
Jim Quigley:So you think the Pacers will get by the Sixers or the Knicks in the conference semis?
Mike Quigley:Well, I'll say this If Embiid's healthy, I think it's the Sixers are going to the conference finals, but this doesn't look it to me. So I just think the Sixers and Bucs are real threats to not make it out of the first round.
Jim Quigley:Let's say it's not healthy. Next, get by. You think the paces would get by the next.
Mike Quigley:Yeah, I think they have a real shot too. Yeah, I give him a real shot. I don't.
Jim Quigley:Yeah, okay.
Mike Quigley:I do. I think, outside of of Brunson, on that Nick's offense, I don't think they're a hard cover defensively. I really don't. And you know I could that could be a coin flip to me. I think that would be a great series. You know Knicks are Pacers. Whoever go to the Eastern Conference Finals they're not going to threaten the Celtics in the end. But yeah, I mean the Knicks could certainly win that series, as could Milwaukee could beat the Pacers too. But I think the Pacers got a real shot. If people aren't healthy and the Knicks aren't healthy, they're missing their second best player. He's not coming back. I think Ananobi makes them a great defensive team, but these supporting players they don't add a ton of offense to Brunson. They remind me a bit of the celtics when we had isaiah thomas um. So I think they're very beatable. If you can find a way to slow brunson down, what are the next half like? What's one player that can beat you on their own with off the dribble?
Jim Quigley:or anything. Brunson is a lot easier said than done and I don't think the paces have the ability to do that whatsoever. I just don't think they're very good defensively at all and I think the Knicks are just much, much better defensively than the Pacers are at this point.
Mike Quigley:But Mike, yeah, you might be right. I'll say this about all these teams, though they're all flawed. Oh sure, the Celt, yeah you might be right, I'll say this about all these teams though they're all flawed, oh sure. And the Celtics aren't, yeah, like they're all very, very flawed. And yeah, my prediction is the Celtics win it all. They play Denver and, yeah, they win in six or seven.
Jim Quigley:I don't care. Yeah, that's what's going to happen. All right, we'll talk to everyone soon, either before this first round matchup begins or certainly after game one on Sunday. Sunday at one it all starts. Looking forward to it. We'll talk soon.